<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Julio Diaz</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Hans Hooyberghs</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Dirk Lauwaet</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Koen De Ridder</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Cristina Linares</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rocio Carmona</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Cristina Ortiz</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Vladimir Kendrovski</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Raf Aerts</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">An Van Nieuwenhuyse</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Dunbar, Maria Bekker-Nielsen</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention.</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Environ Int</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Antwerp</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Climate change</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Heat-related hospital admissions</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Heat-related mortality</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Heatwaves</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2018</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2018 Feb</style></date></pub-dates></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">111</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;BACKGROUND: &lt;/b&gt;Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in several European cities. Heat-related mortality and morbidity is likely to increase under climate change scenarios without adequate prevention based on locally relevant evidence.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;METHODS: &lt;/b&gt;We modelled the urban climate of Antwerp for the summer season during the period 1986-2015, and projected summer daily temperatures for two periods, one in the near (2026-2045) and one in the far future (2081-2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the relationship between temperature and mortality, as well as with hospital admissions for the period 2009-2013, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatization and acclimatization based on a constant threshold percentile temperature.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;RESULTS: &lt;/b&gt;During the sample period 2009-2013 we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 26°C, or the 89th percentile of the maximum daily temperature series. The annual average heat-related mortality in this period was 13.4 persons (95% CI: 3.8-23.4). No effect of heat was observed in the case of hospital admissions due to cardiorespiratory causes. Under a no acclimatization scenario, annual average heat-related mortality is multiplied by a factor of 1.7 in the near future (24.1deaths/year CI 95%: 6.78-41.94) and by a factor of 4.5 in the far future (60.38deaths/year CI 95%: 17.00-105.11). Under a heat acclimatization scenario, mortality does not increase significantly in the near or in the far future.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;CONCLUSION: &lt;/b&gt;These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate, and the calibration of existing prevention activities in light of locally relevant evidence.&lt;/p&gt;
</style></abstract></record></records></xml>